Odds and probabilities

My alma mater, the #1 ranked University of Georgia Bulldogs, play the Kent State Golden Flashes in football next Saturday. According to the professional oddsmakers, the final score won’t be pretty.

Georgia is a 44 point favorite to win the game. The oddsmakers give the Bulldogs an overwhelming 99.2 percent probability of winning the game without factoring in the point spread, which statistically speaking means Kent State doesn’t have a prayer of winning. Georgia could start the game with their second string players and still win easily. The Bulldogs could probably even pull in a couple of students out of the stands, dress them in uniforms and put them on the field, and still win the game.

One of them could pretend to be our punter and never even have to get on the field. He could just put on a uniform and stand on the sidelines the whole game.

After Georgia played Oregon, one writer said the Bulldogs were not a buzzsaw, they were what makes buzzsaws weep. Another writer said that every team in the NFL would trade their current tight end room for the Bulldogs collection of tight ends. Georgia looks good. Georgia is good.

The Dawgs lost most of last year’s defense to the NFL after winning the national championship, but this year’s version is currently only giving up about a field goal per game on average. That’s a very stingy defense. Of course, we still have to play Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Kentucky, but true freshman Mykel Williams looks like Travon Walker’s clone, and the rest of the defense looks awfully stout. The competition will get tougher as the schedule plays out, but Georgia will also have opportunities to improve as the season goes along. As long as practices remain tougher than games, this team will keep getting better.

This year’s offense looks like it could be as dominant as last year’s defense. And so far, this year’s defense looks a lot like last year’s defense. It’s a great time to be a Dawg fan.

Oregon was highly ranked before the season started. Then the Bulldogs shellacked them, and people began to think Oregon wasn’t as good as some people had expected. That same weekend, Kent State lost to lower ranked Washington by 25 points. Then last weekend Oregon blasted ranked an undefeated BYU team by three touchdowns, and suddenly people are thinking the Ducks are a good football team again. But Oregon never was a bad team — Georgia just made them look bad.

On the radio earlier this morning the talking heads were complaining that Georgia football has gotten boring because the other team has no chance of winning the game. But wait until (God forbid) Georgia loses a game, and these same people will be acting like the sky is falling, and the Apocalypse has begun… even if the next loss comes to an undefeated Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Of course, sportscasters are predictably stupid and if you’re a fan, you already know this.

On the other hand, I’m not saying the Bulldogs are invincible. They aren’t perfect…but it isn’t obvious what their imperfections might be. Through three games, the offense has scored one hundred thirty points and the defense has only surrendered ten — seven of those coming in the final minute of the South Carolina game against the Bulldog’s third team defense. That isn’t an excuse — as defensive end Nolan Smith said after the game, if you’re on the field, you’re a starter, and held to the same standard. Nobody scores. If the other team never scores, the Dawgs will never lose.

Nor am I predicting that Georgia will go undefeated this season. It’s too early. You always take them one game at a time. Nor do I predict they will win a second consecutive national championship based on the results of three games. A lot can happen during the course of a season, not all of it good. As we all remember, Georgia looked invincible and held the #1 ranking most of last year. But when the Dawgs played the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, Alabama crushed them. Georgia had the last laugh and won the National Championship game, but there are no guarantees that will happen again. Should the Dawgs reach the playoffs, the odds of winning another championship will be better than they are today simply because there will be fewer games left to play.

There are no givens that Georgia will reach the national championship game again this year. Georgia has to play Kentucky in Lexington this year, and it could be snowing in late November. We have Tennessee at home, but the Volunteers can score a lot of points in a hurry. They can never be underestimated. Even though Georgia should be heavily favored, Florida could prove to be a more formidable opponent this year. In any one game, anything can happen. It will all get settled on the field.

You don’t look past Kent State. You look forward to destroying them without suffering any serious injuries before moving on to the next opponent.

A serious injury to a key player like quarterback Stetson Bennett could change the odds against Georgia repeating as national champions. It’s a long season. Time will tell. However, I am predicting the Bulldogs beat the Golden Flashes this weekend, and I’m taking absolutely no risk in doing so. When everyone is healthy and the best players are on the field, Georgia is a team without any discernible flaws, and a force to be reckoned with.

I’ll even go out on a hypothetical limb (but not far) and say that the odds of Georgia going undefeated and winning a second consecutive national championship are considerably better than the odds of Kent State pulling off the upset this weekend. In fact, you might have a better chance of seeing a pig fly than you have of seeing Kent State winning this weekend’s game against Georgia. Yes, I know, I know…there have been a number of major upsets already this year. Appalachian State went on the road and beat Texas A&M. And Marshall upset Notre Dame in South Bend. But Kent State is not going to beat Georgia in Athens this coming weekend. Georgia isn’t Texas A&M or Notre Dame.

Georgia has become a team where a single mistake will have minimal effect on the final score of the game, and there won’t be more than one or two mistakes made by their defense. Dan Jackson was a starting safety on last year’s national championship team, and he lost his job to Malaki Starks — not because he wasn’t playing as well as last year, but true freshman Starks is simply playing even better this year. Barring injury, Starks looks like a future All-American, with two interceptions in his first three games. Most if not all of the second team unit at Georgia could start for other schools, and they play a lot of football for the Bulldogs because they are good enough to start for other schools.

Let’s be honest — would you want to bet on Kent State without getting any points, knowing that the odds are 99.2 percent against you? That’s less than a one percent chance of success. Not without the point spread, you wouldn’t make that bet…then again, Georgia scored seven consecutive touchdowns against Oregon’s defense, and it’s pretty safe to assume Kent State’s defense is worse than Oregon’s. I’m not sure I’d bet against the spread, either. The best idea is not to bet, period. Just watch and enjoy the game (as long as you have ESPN+. Might have to go to a sports bar to watch it.)

About the only odds I can think of that are worse than the odds against Kent State beating Georgia are the odds against this fine-tuned universe and the animation of matter as the product of random chance. Those odds are ridiculously low, much worse than 99.2 percent against success.

In my book The God Conclusion, I simply look at what the experts themselves have said about the scientific evidence for the origin of the universe and the origin of life and the statistical probability of the universe and life being created accidentally, and the odds are considerably worse than 99.2 percent against success. According to Roger Penrose, the odds against this universe existing are 1 in 10 to the 300th power. The odds against abiogenesis (the first living organism) are even worse than that.

Frankly, you’d be better off betting on Kent State.